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Ottawa's Ethanol Credit Multiplier vs. the US 45Z Credit
Environment and Climate Change Canada says a credit multiplier of about 1.14 for ethanol and 1.4 for biomass-based diesel would replicate the US 45Z credit. We rebuilt both numbers. Diesel holds up. Ethanol depends almost entirely on which Iowa plant you compare against: an average plant scores right at the 45Z threshold and earns close to nothing, while a plant with deep cuts needs a multiplier above 1.5. -
Washington Floated a Diesel Export Ban This Week. The Refining Math Shows Why It Would Backfire — and Where E15 Actually Helps
Diesel hit $6.53/gallon this week and the White House briefly floated banning exports to bring the price down. Refinery yield data explains why that idea died within 48 hours, why the Gulf Coast glut it would create wouldn't reach Iowa anyway, and why higher ethanol blending is a more coherent lever — bounded by a real ethanol-supply ceiling nobody making that case seems to mention. -
Ottawa Says Farmers Now Face a Negative Tax Rate on New Equipment. Three Scenarios Show When That's Actually True
The new Productivity Mega Deduction gives 100% immediate expensing on farm equipment, and Finance Canada pegs agriculture's marginal effective tax rate at -6.0%. Whether a given farm sees that in cash depends on purchase size relative to income, whether the farm is incorporated, and — for a lot of Ontario's multi-income farmers — a little-discussed rule called the restricted farm loss that can cap the whole thing at $17,500 a year regardless of how much is spent. -
Can the US Actually Get Meaningful Potash Out of Belarus?
Trump says a 'massive' Belarus potash deal is coming, pitched as leverage against Canada. The export route Belarus would have to use tells a more modest story.
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